Feeder Regionals: Delta, Elkhart Central, Marion, West Noble
Boys Teams:
The New Haven Semi-State will have plenty of competition on both the individual and team side. The New Haven Semi-State features 6 of the top 20 teams according to the MileSplit rankings. Most notably, Fishers being one of the top teams in the state. Fishers top 5 have all dipped under 16:15, and they will look to hoist the semi-state trophy at the end of the day.
The team that is the favorite is clearly Fishers. All year, Fishers has looked like a state title contender and they still do. They will look to prove their dominance with a semi-state title under their belts, and a shot at the state title. Fishers finished second behind Carmel last year at state, and they will look to get redemption this year. Fishers returns 3 runners from last year's state team led by the Meyer brothers. Both have ran under 16 this year, and will get them valuable points this weekend. Ethan Meyer has a shot at the individual title, but it will be a dog fight until the end. Their scoring 5 have averaged 15:56, the highest in the semi state by 21 seconds. There mean split is of 34.40 seconds. That will prove helpful come state, when they have several runners close to each other vying for valuable points. If everyone runs how they have all year, Fishers will come out with the win this weekend
The next closest team to Fishers, would be Hamilton South. They are led by Eric Swinson and Grant Wilson. Hamilton South has a slightly better 1-5 split but there overall times aren't as fast as Fishers, which will put them at the next best finish, 2nd. Eric Swinson and Grant Wilson have both ran under 16:05, and they should be within the first lead pack throughout the race. That will get them low points, and then it's up to there 3-5 to pressure Fishers 3-5.
Coming in 3rd, we have to go with Fort Wayne Concordia. They are led by one of the fastest guys in the state, Reece Gibson. He has looked consistent all year, and has a shot for the individual title. Concordia has 3 guys ranked in the top 50 in the semi-state, based off PR's. Concordia could make a run for 2nd, but there 1-5 split is a 1:24. If there 4-5 finish in the top 40, they could take over the 2nd spot from Hamilton South.
Battling for that 4th place spot looks to be Fort Wayne Carroll and Wabash in our minds. FW Carroll has been one of the top tier teams all year, but has experienced a few injuries and has not looked stellar. They are still a team that could compete for a podium spot at the state meet if they can put it all together next weekend. This weekend though they're focus will be on just qualifying for the state meet. Wabash has been making history this post-season, winning both the sectional and the regional for the first time in their school's history. These boys do not look like they're ready to stop making history yet either. Saturday will be the big time for them as they look to go against a few of the best teams in the state as they attempt to qualify for the state meet for the first time ever. Both of these teams have less than a 45 second spread between their 1-5 so it's super tough to call which one will take 4th, but it appears they should both be able to qualify to run at Lavern Gibson together.
We can't leave out who we think will get the final advancing position, because according to the stats it will be a nail-biter to the finish! The battle will be between Homestead and Westview. The advantage that Westview has is Spencer Carpenter. Carpenter has raced solid all year, and will need to be in the top 10 if he wants to help his team advance. Overall, Westview has the better average but as with a few other teams there 5 has yet to break 17. We give the final advancing spot to Westview.
Predictions: Fishers wins, while Hamilton Southeastern, Fort Wayne Concordia, Wabash, Fort Wayne Carroll, and Westview advance.
The individual race is set to be a battle to the chute. The race is wide open between 5-6 guys. Brennan Butche of Mississinewa ran the fastest time in the semi-state this past weekend clocking in at 15:27. He's been solid all year and he's peaking at the right time. Reece Gibson has raced well all season, and he finished 2nd here last year. Now a Junior, Gibson has a real shot to grab that number 1 spot come Saturday. Other contenders are Luke Combs, Jesse Hamlin, Ethan Meyer, and Spencer Carpenter. We think Gibson comes up on top.
Feeder Regionals: Delta, Elkhart Central, Marion, West Noble
Girls Teams:
The girl's race features 5 of the top 25 teams, #4 Fort Wayne Carroll, #8 Fishers, #10 Hamilton South, #14 Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger, and #22 Penn. #4 Fort Wayne is a title contender at the state tournament later this month, but first they will need to take care of business this Saturday.
Let's start with Fort Wayne Carroll. Last year, they finished 2nd to Zionsville at the state finals. They've finished 2nd the last 3 years at the state finals and this year there in the contention for that first state title. We should get a good look at how strong they are, and there chances at winning it all next weekend. The team is led by two seniors Meagan Hathaway and Abby Green. Both have ran well all year, and will compete for the individual title which we will get into later. These two should finish in the top 10, while the other the scoring 5 should all finish in the top 30-40. If there's something that could Carroll could work on is there 1-5 Split. It's just under 1 minute, but if they can close the gap between there 5 that will help them score less and ultimately win them the semi-state title.
The team we think could pressure Carroll is Fishers. There average time is an 18:53 which isn't near as fast as Carroll. The advantage Fishers has is there 1-5 Split is an impressive 24 seconds, but overall there times are a little slower than Carroll's. If Carroll has one mistake, look for Fishers to pressure.
Hamilton South would have to be our pick for third. They have a solid team but we don't think they will have enough to pressure Fishers. If there 4-5 and can close the gap on there 3, that could help there overall 1-5 Split. We definitely wouldn't count them out.
The advancing 4th and 5th spots should go to Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger and Penn. Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger is led by Erin Strzelecki, who is also the fastest girl in the New Haven Semi-State. They will have a low number to start and then it's up to the rest of the scoring 5 to have good races. Right behind them should be Penn. They have one of the better 1-5 Split's at 1:10. That should help if they could run as a pack, and move up the field. There not as fast as Bishop Dwenger so that's why we have them in the 5th spot.
The 6th and final spot should go to Homestead. They have a 1:18 1-5 Split, but there average time is a 19:43 which is a little slower compared to the teams above. If there 4-5 have a good race, they may be able to pressure Penn for the 5th spot.
We think Fort Wayne Carroll wins. Then Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger, Penn, and Homestead all punch there tickets to the state finals.
The individual race is set to be a photo finish. The two front runners are Erin Strzelecki and Kayla McCulloch. This race is set to be one of the best races in state this weekend. There PR's are almost identical, with Strzelecki owning the top time. Strzelecki and McCulloch have raced each other 3 times this season, with Strzelecki winning 2 out of the 3. Strzelecki has been improving all year and is peaking at the right time. The most recent race they raced together was this past weekend at the West Noble Regionals. Strzelecki clocked in at 18:09 while McCulloch came in at 18:31. One girl we should keep a look out for is Megan Hathaway of Carroll. She has raced solid all year and ran a 18:14 at Regionals this past weekend. We think she will be up with these 2, and if she's feeling good at the end, she could take home the individual and possibly help her team to a Semi-State title as well. This race should be won by one of three, and we wouldn't be surprised if there all separated by 1 second at the finish.