What will we learn from the Asics Clovis Invitational?

Fiona O'Keeffe (Davis) will eventually be challenged individually in a race, but this meet is much more about her team's goals than her own.


From the its spot on the calendar to its location, the Asics Clovis Invitational is full of meaning for fans of cross country. We've hit the transitional part of the season where the "shake off the rust" meets are over and teams are starting to prepare for championship competition. They're running on the same course and distance as the state meet, which can have significant psychological value (for good or bad). For that reason, no other meet so far this season is set up to tell us as much about the teams that participate. Amazingly, the competition level matches the information value of the meet, with a bunch of our state's best teams and one from Texas, to boot. That makes for a total of 9 boys' or girls' teams currently in the Saucony Flo50 national rankings! No matter what happens, we're going to come out of this weekend knowing at least a little more about who the true contenders are this year.


Championship Boys

The biggest remaining mystery of the 2015 season is about to be revealed on Saturday: just how good is Dana Hills? The #2 team in our Preseason Countdown has not really brought out all the guns yet this season - the Dolphins did not run their best 7 in 3 of their 5 Saturday meets, and they were dominant in the other two. In theory, this should be the first time the full Dana Hills team has been seriously tested this season. That test will come from Great Oak, and with Isaac Cortes not running this weekend, the Wolfpack could be at a slight disadvantage. Although Great Oak has looked stronger so far this year, we expected these two teams to be pretty even coming into the season, and it looks like that's what we're getting! In addition to Great Oak (US #3) and Dana Hills (US #12), we have US #10 Jesuit down from Sacramento, and they have been without a doubt the surprise power of the season in California. Martin Luther King (US #13) ran extremely well at Woodbridge, and they can solidify their status as a possible title contender at the state meet with another strong performance here. Oh, and did I neglect to mention that perennial Texas powerhouse Southlake Carroll (US #17) made the trip to Fresno for this meet? Don't think those are the only teams worth watching at this meet, either. Arcadia is strong enough to stay in the top 5 on a good day, too, especially with a certain someone up front. It wouldn't even be terribly surprising to see Davis or Madera South sneak into the top 5.

Individually, Phillip Rocha (Arcadia) is the man to beat until he's been beaten after a huge time at Stanford. Having 1 point for your #1 runner means you're essentially running 4 against 5 the rest of the way, so Rocha certainly keeps his team competitive. Based on track times, you would expect Jake Ogden to be leading Dana Hills, but so far this season it has been Jack Landgraf and Mason Coppi out front. If Ogden joins his two teammates, the Dolphins will be very hard to beat. Spencer Dodds (Great Oak), Tyler Janes (M.L. King), and Eduardo Herrera (Madera South) finished in exactly that order at Woodbridge, but since then Herrera has had a superior performance in Portland. Those three could end up in any order, but can they hang with Rocha? If they can, this race will turn out to be very fast; if not, it will just go to show how good the defending D1 champ is. Michael Vernau (Davis) has had a pair of strong 5K's on very fast courses, but this one is a bit more challenging, and it will be interesting to see where he ends up. Likewise for Luis Grijalva (Armijo), who ran 2nd to Rocha at Stanford. Reed Brown leads Southlake Carroll, and he looks capable of at least hanging with the chase pack. There are several other runners who would love to advance their reputations by knocking off some of these name-recognition runners, and that should make for a lot of movement and in a large lead group.



Championship Girls

A few weekends ago, Fiona O'Keeffe said in an interview with MileSplit that she and her US #18 Davis teammates have NXN aspirations. Of course, so do the girls from US #1 Great Oak, and that's part of what makes this weekend's meet so exciting! This is the first chance so far this season to measure the two strong programs in head-to-head competition. It's also the renewal of the respectful rivalry between O'Keeffe and Destiny Collins - that is, assuming Collins can even beat teammate Evelyn Mandel, which is no easy thing to do right now. Another interesting question: where does Arcadia truly fit in comparison to those two teams? The Apaches (US #13 this week) are clearly better than expected in the preseason - they actually grade out #1 in the virtual meet using 5K times and have beaten Davis head-to-head at Stanford. (Make sure you take Great Oak's 5K times with a grain of salt, as their only race at that distance was on the very tough Bob Firman Invitational course.) Southlake Carroll, who jumped up to US #20 this week, could be in the mix for a top-3 finish, too.

After those four, there appears to be a bit of a drop-off in the quality of the teams. That isn't the case when it comes to the individuals in this race, though, which is loaded with top runners. Morgin Coonfield (McKinleyville) has a really fast 3 Mile time this season (almost as fast as O'Keeffe's incredible 5K time), and she is competitive in pretty much every race she runs. Sofia Castiglioni (Davis) showed that she's for real with a 17:33 at Stanford, where she defeated Coonfield and Holly Lung (Arcadia). It will be fun to see Kelly Bernd (Canyon Crest) compete in this kind of environment - she has a huge time from a very fast Dana Hills 3 Mile course, but she wasn't pushed there, and this is a great race for her to get her first sub-18 5K. The competition here is also perfect for Chloe Hansel (Las Lomas) to bust out her first big time of the 2015 season (her first race at Stanford was solid, but sooner or later she'll do something spectacular). The list could go on much farther, but at that point we would just be guessing. Better to wait and see how things shake out tomorrow, and then we can get to the really fun stuff (at least to me) - figuring out what it all means and how it impacts the rankings!


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